Can Benjamin Netanyahu Win Again? Israel Heads to the Polls on October 27

 



Can Benjamin Netanyahu Win Again? Israel Heads to the Polls on October 27


Israel’s political drama is back on. The Knesset has voted to dissolve and confirmed national elections for *October 27, 2026* — the first time in decades that an Israeli government has served out its full four-year term. 


And at the center of it all: *Benjamin Netanyahu*. Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, 76, has confirmed he will run again. “I intend to win,” he said, setting up what could be the defining contest of his political life.


But can he actually pull it off this time?


*The Case Against: Headwinds for Netanyahu*


Netanyahu enters the race on shaky ground. 7eba


*1. The polls look rough*

A July 2026 Maariv poll put Netanyahu’s governing bloc at just *48 seats* — the lowest yet. The opposition bloc was projected at 72 seats.

His Likud party is tied with the new centrist *Yashar “Straight” party* led by former IDF Chief Gadi Eisenkot, both polling around 22 seats. Another poll by Channel 13 showed the opposition potentially winning enough to form a government for the first time. 


A majority of Israelis want him out of office. 


*2. The war and October 7 fallout*

The vote is widely viewed as a referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership since the Gaza war erupted. Critics blame him for security failures around the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks. He’s also facing criticism over the wars in Gaza, Iran and Lebanon, and souring relations with the West.


*3. Domestic battles*

His coalition, described as the most right-wing in Israel’s history, rushed through controversial laws before dissolution: judicial overhaul measures, media oversight, and legislation shielding ultra-Orthodox men from military conscription. Analysts say it was aimed at keeping his religious and nationalist partners happy. 


*The Case For: Why Netanyahu Still Has a Shot*


Writing Netanyahu off has been a mistake before. Analysts call him “nothing if not a political magician”. 


*1. Coalition math is still fluid*

48 seats is far from 61, but Israeli politics is about who you can bring to the table. Parties like “Zionist Home” crossed the threshold in recent polling and have not ruled out joining a Netanyahu-led government. Netanyahu himself is pitching a “broad national government, not a right-wing, not a left-wing government that depends on Arab parties”. 


*2. He’s the ultimate survivor*

This will be the first time Netanyahu completes a full term as PM. He’s done it before: five elections between 2019-2022, comebacks, indictments, protests — and he’s still here. The Knesset Speaker thanked him for helping “maintain a four-year term”, a milestone Israel hasn’t hit since 1988.


*3. Base mobilization*

The end-of-term legislative blitz was designed to “shore up his alliance and enter the election from a position of strength”. By delivering for ultra-Orthodox and far-right partners, he’s betting on turnout from his core. 


And as a Likud spokesman put it: “The only poll that matters is the one conducted by the Israeli public on election day”. 


*What Will Decide It*


Three issues are expected to dominate the next three months:

1. *Security and the war’s toll* - Gaza, Iran, Lebanon, and public trust after Oct 7

2. *Ultra-Orthodox military exemptions* - A flashpoint that nearly collapsed the government

3. *Judiciary and democratic institutions* - The independence of the Attorney General and courts


The new challengers matter too. Besides Eisenkot’s Yashar, there’s “Together” — a joint list of Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid polling at 16 seats. 


*Bottom Line*


The arithmetic right now isn’t there for Netanyahu to easily form a coalition. Polls show his bloc trailing, and the opposition has momentum. 


But this is Netanyahu. He’s turned smaller deficits into victories before. The election on October 27 will test whether Israelis want continuity with the country’s longest-serving leader, or a change after nearly three years of war. 


One thing is certain: it won’t be boring.




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